SUCCESSFUL CLOUD SEEDING IN ANDHRA PRADESH

Prof.T.Shivaji Rao,

Director, Center for Environmental Studies,

GITAM University, Visakhapatnam
http://tshivajirao.blogspot.in/2012/06/cloud-seeding-for-india.html  
WHY IN  POOR COUNTRIES LIKE INDIA,THE RICH POLITICIANS ALWAYS MANIPULATE OFFICIALS AND SCIENTISTS TO OPPOSE CLOUD SEEDING ?

Why BMC is taking so long for cloud seeding experiment ?/it is already confirmed that it has rained properly. Are the Shiv Sena and BJP leaders want to delay this experiment deliberatelly since by september the cloud density will be less and they can earn more money in the experiment which will not create  the result. BMC should have done this work in July when cloud cover was adequate also . BJP and Shiv Sena will earn lots of money through tanker mafia. it is corruption which is going on for a long time in Maharastra .it is done by Pawar familly as well-----AMIT[Mumbai]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/opinions/15565223.cms?ordertype=asc 

1.0 INTRODUCTION:

The Government of Andhra Pradesh has declared nearly 555 Mandals as Rain shadow Area mainly in the districts of Ranga Reddy, Nalgonda, Medak, Karimnagar, Mahaboobnagar, Guntur, Prakasam, Nelore, Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa and Chittoor.  In these Mandals the average annual rainfall is less than 600mm and below that is why they were declared under Rain Shadow Area in the year 2005.  The Cloud seeding is aimed to enhance the rainfall as well as to narrow down the dry spells during the monsoon season.  In Andhra Pradesh cloud seeding was started in the year 2003 and has been continued year after year till 2009.  In 2003 the cloud seeding was monitored by WALAMTARI while it was Panchayati Raj Department in the year 2004. Later from the year 2005 onwards the Government of Andhra Pradesh has created Rain shadow Areas Development (RSAD) Department and entrusted the monitoring of the Cloud Seeding to Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Hyderabad (JNTUH) in view of the program’s Scientific and Technological nature.  The JNTUH in turn has established a separate department namely Centre for Earth, Atmosphere and Weather Modification Technologies (CEA &WMT) and has been monitoring the Cloud Seeding Programme with experienced and expert Meteorologists since the year 2005.

2.0 RESULTS OF CLOUD SEEDING:

In the years 2003 and 2004 the understanding of the microphysical properties of the clouds was inadequate and could not  achieve the desired results in enhancing the rainfall.  Mostly  cold clouds were seeded in those years and warm clouds were seeded in those years and warm clouds were neglected.  In order to achieve the latest understanding in these technologies, the JNTU has organized an International Workshop in 2005.  The main outcome of this workshop was that the cloud seeding programme should concentrate mostly on warm clouds since majority of them exist in our region unlike in the western world where predominantly cold clouds exist.  Following this strategy the rainfall enhancement was 12.8%  in the year 2005, 17.2% in 2006. 19.17% in 2007, 18.25% in 2008 and 17.01%  in 2009 respectively.

3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES ON CLOUD SEEDING:

The CEA & WMT, JNTUH has organized several National and International Workshops and Conferences on the subject of Cloud Seeding every year since 2005.  The results of these conferences and workshop are being utilized in the ongoing Cloud Seeding Programme of AP to achieve better results.  Inspite of their best efforts there was a lot of debate in the print and  electronic media about the efficacy of the cloud seeding in enhancing the rainfall.  In order to dispel some of the doubts about the AP Cloud seeding programme another International workshop cum Brainstorming Session was organized during December 2008.  In this conference scientists from America, Russia and South Africa were participated apart from Indian experts.

During this conference the scientists have evaluated the AP Cloud  Seeding Programme and analysed the data so far then generated.  They came to the following conclusions.

1.the cloud seeding programme of Andhra Pradesh has utilized the best available Science and Technology and the results are very encouraging and the cloud seeding programme must be continued beyond 2009.

2. In view of the large Rain Shadow Area in the state of Andhra Pradesh, at least three Radars and Three Aircraft are required for seeding to cover the vast area.  Infact the actual requirement is four radars and five aircrafts as opined by the scientists.

3.In order to achieve good results in the Cloud Seeding, a cloud physics aircraft which measures the Micro Physical Properties of the clouds is essential to initiate strong R &D activity in the cloud Seeding Programme and such programme must be continued at least for five years in order to gain better understanding of the clouds.

In view of the above recommendations the RSAD Department, Government of AP has called tenders for cloud seeding to utilize three aircrafts and three Radars in 2009.  However the process has got much delayed in view of the election code during the summer 2009.  Nevertheless, the cloud seeding could be started from 20^th July 2009 with two radars and two aircrafts while trying for the additional air craft which has joined at later date in the programme.

4.0 THE EXPERIENCE OF THE CLOUD SEEDING IN THE 2009 DROUGHT YEAR:

Never before the state has witnessed both severe drought and floods as in the year 2009.  The AP Cloud Seeding Programme for the first time has faced the severe drought situation and tried to mitigate it as much as possible.  The result is that the cloud seeding has helped in mitigating the drought to some extent but could not avert it since the number of seedable clouds available in the severe drought situation is far less when compared to normal situation.  An analysis of the rainfall data of seeded mandals provided by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Government of Andhra Pradesh has thrown an interesting fact that it is only 41.38% of excess   rainfall mandals in the state lies in the Rain Shadow Area at the beginning of the Cloud seeidng programme.  While the same figure has increased to nearly 95.65% by the end of the cloud seeding programme in the year 2009 (Table-1) This figure has been achieved even before the floods in the Krishna Basin (Fig 1&2) .  This lone example is enough to state that cloud seeding programme in Andhra Pradesh is helping in enhancing the rainfall.

5.0 PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE CAIPEEX EXPERIMENT BY GOVERNMENT OF INDIA:

The government of India has taken up a National experiment namely “Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX)” through Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).  The main aim of this experiment is to understand microphysical properties of the clouds in the interaction between aerosol and the cloud apart from conducting cloud seeding experiments to enhance the rainfall in various parts of the country.  This experiment was started in the year 2009 and will be continued till the year 2012.  As part of the first phase, they have measured the Microphysical properties of the clouds from May to September in the year 2009 at various parts of the country by flying with specially instrumented cloud physics aircraft for the purpose.  The preliminary results of these measurements are indicating that the clouds over Telangana and Rayalaseema are seedable to enhance the rainfall and observed that the natural Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) over these regions is of the order of 0.5 microns.  In the cloud seeding programme it is the general practice that we introduce giant nuclei artificially which is having the size more than the natural CCN size to enhance the rainfall.

Meanwhile the CEA & WMT of JNTUH has tested the flares used in the Cloud Seeding programme of AP by utilizing the above Cloud Physics Aircraft.  In these tests it came to know that the flares being used are capable of producing the CCN size of the order of one micron and above which is more than the natural CCN size as mentioned above.   Experts feel that this artificial CCN size has to be further increased to about 2 to 3 microns get the better results.  Infact the CAIPEEX programme will examine the resulting rainfalls with varying CCN  materials and sizes during the years 2010 and 2011.  We have to wait for the results at least for one more year.  In view of these findings it can be said that the AP cloud seeding programme has been progressing well with the latest scientific and technological advancements.

6.0 OTHER APPLICATIONS OF THE CLOUD SEEDING:

The cloud seeding operations in Andhra Pradesh  though mainly applied for enhancing the rainfall; it can be applied for other beneficial uses such as suppression of hail storms during pre monsoon season, dissipation of clouds during flooding season and dissipation of fog during winter season.  These applications are already being in use in many other countries.  The biggest example is that during Olympics in China, they have stopped the rain during opening and closing ceremonies.

7.0 ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF THE CLOUD SEEDING:

The climate scientists are forecasting more droughts and floods due to climate change in the near future.  In this context the cloud seeding experiments can be beneficially used to help the farmers in combating the droughts and floods as has been opined by many experts in this field.  The expenditure for this purpose is very small when compared to the benefits accrued to the society in general and farmers in particular.  For example, there was a prolonged dry spell in the year 2008 at Nalgonda district where cotton crop is in its middle of the growth and almost in a semi wilting stage.  Luckily one day there was a seedable cloud appeared over these areas, immediately the cloud seeding aircraft has seeded the cloud resulting in good amount of rainfall and the crop was saved.  Experts say that, has that rainfall was not occurred, the estimated economic loss could have run into more than 100 crores of rupees.  Infact the total expenditure in a year for cloud seeding is of the order of 25 crores only.  When compared to these figures the benefits from cloud seeding are immense, that is why more than 25 countries around the globe  are deploying these techniques successfully for the last 40 years.

8.0 ROLE OF CLOUD SEEDING IN THE WATER MANAGEMENT:

As per the WMO, the cloud seeding operations is a part of water management technique and it is not an alternative to any traditional water supply.  It is basically the enhancement of rainfall.  For example, if a cloud can rain an amount of 10mm on its natural conditions, due to seeding the same cloud can yield 12mm.   If there is no cloud at all, there is no possibility for seeding.  However during the monsoon, quite often we see that there are good number of clouds appear and about to rain but disappear without any rainfall at all.  In this juncture if you intervene the cloud by seeding, then most of these clouds has a chance of giving precipitation.  This is how the rainfall enhancement can be made over a period of time amounting to nearly 15 to 20%.  This enhancement is very important in the context that we declare meteorological drought if the annual precipitation is got reduced by 25%.  Therefore the cloud seeding plays an important role in mitigating the drought as well as in reducing the number of drought years.

9.0 CONCLUSION:

From the above examples it may be concluded that cloud seeding operations are boon to the farmers of rainfed agriculture and these operations can be conveniently utilized under favourable conditions to fill the reservoirs apart from increasing the ground water levels.  Moreover we can save lot of crops by suppressing the hail storms during the pre-monsoon showers apart from dissipating the rainfall during the floods.  In the context of more droughts and floods due to climate change, cloud seeding techniques can be effectively used to mitigate the climate change and will help the society in a multipurpose way.

 

DETAILS OF CLOUD SEEDING OPERATIONS FROM 2003-2009 IN A NUT SHELL

S.No.	Year	Date of Starting of cloud seeding	Date of Closing of Cloud seeding	No. of Contracted Days	No. of Days seeded	Districts Covered	Mandals seeded	Radars used	Aircrafts used	Expenditure in Rs.	Water Samples analyszed	% of Enhance-ment of Rainfall	Remarks
1.	2003	19-9-2003	18-11-2003	60	--	1	63	--	1	2,67,00,000/-	--	--	Based on Karnataka Rates
2.	2004	23-7-2004	15-12-2004	146	87	16	510	2	3	20,02,52,282/-	14	4.76	On Tender Basis
3.	2005	21-6-2005	21-10-2005	120	86	10	476	2	3	20,62,02,094/-	108	12.85	On Tender Basis
4.	2006	19-9-2006	18-12-2006	90	49	10	552	2	2	13,89,51,036/-	610	17.2	Nomination Based on 2005 Tender rates
5.	2007	16-7-2007	12-11-2007	120	76	12	566	2	2	22,16,05,956/-	2159	19.17	On Tender Basis
6	2008	25-7-2008	24-11-2008	120	76	12	651	2	2	24,42,58,907/-	942	18.25	On Tender basis but contract was finalized based on 2007 rates with 10% extra
7.	2009	20-7-2009	23-11-2009	120	80	12	558	2	3	25,97,57,800	536	17.01	On Tender Basis

Table-1 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL STATUS FOR THE YEAR -2009
Week	Excess			Normal			Deficient			Scanty			No Rain			Total Mandals
	ANDHRA	RSAD	% IN RSAD	ANDHRA	RSAD	% IN RSAD	ANDHRA	RSAD	% IN RSAD	ANDHRA	RSAD	% IN RSAD	ANDHRA	RSAD	% IN RSAD	ANDHRA	RSAD
1Jun-10Jun 2009	195	132	67.69	124	72	58.06	217	115	53.00	326	180	55.21	242	154	63.64	1104	653
1Jun-17Jun 2009	153	146	95.42	163	121	74.23	263	176	66.92	466	188	40.34	59	22	37.29	1104	653
1Jun-24Jun 2009	157	152	96.82	161	136	84.47	294	180	61.22	461	173	37.53	31	12	38.71	1104	653
1 Jun-1 Jul 2009	159	128	80.50	197	129	65.48	374	222	59.36	363	168	46.28	11	6	54.55	1104	653
1 Jun-8 Jul 2009	108	75	69.44	212	115	54.25	504	283	56.15	278	178	64.03	2	2	100.00	1104	653
1Jun-15 Jul 2009	87	36	41.38	219	107	48.86	537	318	59.22	261	190	72.80	0	2	0.00	1104	65
1Jun-22 Jul 2009	51	14	27.45	187	86	45.99	568	308	54.23	298	245	82.21	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-29 Jul 2009	27	13	48.15	118	44	37.29	536	280	52.24	423	316	74.70	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-5 Aug 2009	22	5	22.73	111	37	33.33	494	265	53.64	477	346	72.54	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-12Aug2009	17	3	17.65	79	20	25.32	459	251	54.68	549	379	69.03	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-19Aug2009	21	12	57.14	132	70	53.03	556	349	62.77	395	222	56.20	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-26Aug2009	42	31	73.81	207	140	67.63	670	381	56.87	185	101	54.59	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-2 Sep 2009	80	68	85.00	291	215	73.88	662	332	50.15	71	38	53.52	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-9 Sep 2009	56	51	91.07	310	222	71.61	673	340	50.52	65	40	61.54	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-16Sep2009	66	58	87.88	303	223	73.60	667	332	49.78	68	40	58.82	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-23Sep2009	60	58	96.67	283	207	73.14	688	341	49.56	73	47	64.38	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-30Sep2009	92	86	93.48	345	254	73.62	621	285	45.89	46	28	60.57	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-7 Oct 2009	122	115	94.26	346	233	67.34	614	286	46.58	22	19	86.36	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-14Oct 2009	107	104	97.20	305	211	69.18	672	321	47.77	20	17	85.00	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-21Oct 2009	96	95	98.96	273	193	70.70	696	339	48.71	39	26	66.67	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-28Oct 2009	90	89	98.89	253	178	70.36	709	387	50.35	52	29	55.77	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-4Nov 2009	83	82	98.80	236	165	69.92	717	358	49.93	68	48	70.59	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-11Nov2009	96	95	98.96	298	228	76.51	676	312	46.15	34	18	52.94	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-18Nov2009	86	85	98.84	321	242	75.39	672	310	46.13	25	16	64.00	0	0	0.00	1104	653
1Jun-25Nov2009	92	88	95.65	352	259	73.58	647	298	46.06	13	8	61.54	0	0	0.00	1104	653
PRE AND POST SEEDING WEEKS