CLOUD SEEDING FOR MORE ELECTRICITY AND FOOD PRODUCTION

ECONOMICALLY CHEAPER METHODS OF CLOUD SEEDING FOR MORE POWER PRODUCTION AND FOOD PRODUCTION

Prof.T.Shivaji Rao
Director, Center for Environmental Studies, GITAM Institute of Science, GITAM University
  http/202.195.239.206/classes/wea_mod/reference/Rosenfeld_2005_17705751.pdf [science proved by chinese-Resarch]
http://159.226.119.58/aas/fileup/PDF/2015-2-230.pdf[science work]

Cloud seeding operations have been successfully conducted by about 40 countries during

different periods during the last 50 years. Recently Australia has taken up cloud seeding

operations in Snowy Mountains region to augment annual precipitation not only to obtain more

snow cover for improving the tourist trade but also for hydropower generation and food

production, besides using this technology to fight the emerging impacts of the global warming.

China has been extensively using cloud seeding operations by employing more than 35000

people to fight the disastrous consequences of the recurring droughts and also to reduce the

summer temperatures and thereby cut down electrical power for air conditioning. Indonesia is

conducting cloud seeding operations to store additional water supplies in reservoirs for

subsequent use during years of water scarcity and drought. Cloud seeding is used in several

places in Russian and American states to eliminate the recurring fog conditions that cause

serious traffic disruptions in Airports and major urban settlements. Many countries are

extensively using cloud seeding to make drastic reductions in the damages caused to lives and

properties due to recurring hail. Presently scientists are considering the revival of cloud seeding

experiments to tame the cyclones and thereby mitigate the damage caused by cyclones and

hurricanes. Thailand is regularly conducting cloud seeding operations every year to obtain

about 2000 mm of annual rainfall not only to meet the municipal, industrial and agricultural

needs but also to promote large scale tourist trade by promoting environmental assets like good

landscapes, gardens, forests and wild life.

See website:http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/4358535.stm 

 In a few places cloud seeding is used to fight the

forest fires and to prevent unwanted rainfalls that are likely to disturb the organization of

scheduled international celebrations, games and sports.

Cloud seeding is cheaper for water supply than conventional irrigation : A brief review of

some of the case studies on cloud seeding experiments conducted in different countries to

achieve increased rainfall for municipal water supply, hydropower generation and agricultural

production at the cheapest cost are presented here. For more details refer to the relevant websites

cited. Further the costs of water supply from various other sources are very high as compared

to cloud seeding, which can be seen from the following table.

Water supply costs from different sources (at 1998 dollars)

 

 Is artificial rainwater 150 times cheaper than ground water …?
Sandy Land Underground Water Conservation District (SLUWCD) has been working
day and night in the interests of the farmers to encourage food production to promote the state
economy and for this purpose have chosen the most effective method of increasing the water
availability by large scale tapping of the sky water and they have succeeded because of their
sincere efforts and close rapport between their scientific and technological experts, administrators
and the general public. The target area includes Yoakum, Terry and Gaines county regions
in West Texas. http://www.sandylandwater.com/cost_benefit.htm
SOAR (Southern Ogallala Aquifer Rainfall) Programme, Texas cloud seeding project
covered 5.048 million acres during the operational seasons covering 77 clouds in 2002 and 69
clouds in 2003. Yoakum county for its 5 lakh acres coverage shared the operational costs
estimated at $20,000. Two independent reputed weather consultant agencies evaluated the
cloud seeding project results. 63 out of 69 clouds seeded during 2003 season produced rainfall
increase of about 2,50,000 ac.ft. For the 77 clouds seeded during 2002 season each cloud system
produced additional rainfall upto about 5000 Kton making a total increased rainfall of 3,80,000
Kton or 3,06,740 ac.ft. (One Acre feet =1234 Cubic meters)
However the economics of cloud seeding have been estimated for Yoakum county.
1. Cost benefit ratio for Yoakum county for 2002
a)Yield per acre of the total SOAR project area for 2002 =
(3,06,740 ac.ft)  5048000acres = 0.06 ac.ft per acre
b)Proportion of excess water for Yoakum county for 2002 =
(0.06 ac.ft/acre) X (511808 acres) = 31,100 ac.ft.
c)Cost per acre ft = ($20,000)  (31,100 ac.ft) = $0.64 /ac.ft.
2. Cost benefit ratio for Yoakum county for 2003
d)Yield per acre of the total SOAR project area for 2003 =
(248500 ac.ft)  5048000acres = 0.05 ac.ft per acre
e)Proportion of excess water for Yoakum county for 2003 =
(0.05 ac.ft/acre) X (511808 acres) = 25,194 ac.ft.
f)Cost per acre ft = ($20,000)  (25,194 ac.ft) = $0.80 /ac.ft.
The above costs for Yoakum county for 2002-2003 represent the purchasing cost of
additional water produced by cloud seeding. But the farmers are normally spending $120 per
acre foot in pumping costs from underground water wells. So if we compare the costs of
pumping incurred by the farmers with the cost of about $0.80 for cloud seeding operation, the
cost benefit ratio comes to 1:150. This clearly shows that for every dollar spent by the farmer
in Yoakum county the benefits obtained will be 150 times higher.
Hydro-electricity at cheaper cost :
Tasmania produces most inexpensive hydro-electricity : Tasmanian Hydro-Electric Commission
is convinced of the economic success of the Tasmanian experiments. This is perhaps best illustrated
by the decision of the Hydroelectric Corporation (HEC) to undertake the Tasmania II experiment
without any operational assistance from CSIRO. However, the HEC has retained a very pragmatic
approach to cloud seeding. McBoyle (1980) quoting from Watson (1976) states “Cloud seeding
has emerged as a feasible and economic proposition in Tasmania when the increase in precipitation
can be utilized for power generation”. Currently Searle (1994) estimates that each HEC cloud
seeding operation costs $645,000 to run and returned an average 55 mm of extra rain during each 6 months experimental season. When the extra water in storage is priced against the energy
generated by the only HEC thermal station the real profit from the silver iodide seeding comes
to about $14.5 million per annum (Searle, pers. comm.) Seeding of these cloud systems resulted
in a 37% increase in rainfall. Suitable days occurred 18 times a year during the experiment and
this gave rise to an estimated total increase of 197 mm for seeded days.
Cost-benefit analyses carried out by the Tasmanian Hydro-Electric Commission for the
Tasmanian I experiment suggest that the increased rainfall from seeding represents a gain of
13:1. More recently Searle (1994) argues that the three separate cloud seeding projects sponsored
by the Hydro-Electricity Commission of Tasmania spanning 14 years have confirmed that cloud
seeding can routinely enhance runoff into Tasmanian storages by 10-20%. Searle estimates that
the energy gained by the cloud seeding operation costs less than 0.2 US cents per kilowatt
hour. http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/cloud.htm#pt2
Gautemala : The Gautemala cloud seeding evaluation was based upon monthly precipitation
data for the period 1980 to 1989. The calculated 17 percent increase for the chosen month of 1992
June precipitation over the Chixoy drainage of Gautimala was equivalent to 1.81 inches. The
Chixoy drainage is approximately 2,140 square miles or 1,369,837 acres. INDE officials indicated
that the Chixoy watershed converts precipitation to runoff with an efficiency of approximately
30 percent. The additional June stream flow into Chixoy as a result of the cloud seeding program
can be estimated as follows:
1,369,837 acres x 1.81 inches = 206,617 acre-feet.
With the 30 percent efficiency factor applied, this equals to 61,985 acre-feet (76,427,505
cubic meters). The cost of this program can be pro-rated to estimate the program costs for June
1992. This cost is $79,700 (U.S.). Consequently, the estimated cost of the additional runoff is
$1.29 (U.S.) per acre-foot or $0.001 (U.S.) per cubic meter. http://www.nawcinc.com/
Summer%20Study.pdf
Honduras : Cloud seeding was conducted over the El Cajon and Lake Yojoa drainage basins in
Honduras during 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1997 rainy seasons, to augment natural precipitation in
these drainages, which will then augment the amount of inflow into the El Cajon Reservoir. This
extra water can then be released to generate additional hydro-electric power. Evaluations of the
1993, 1994 and 1995 cloud seeding programs indicated a 9 to 15 percent increase in precipitation
attributed to the cloud seeding.
The June through October 1995 program indicated a 13 percent increase. Additional
runoff was estimated as 366,876,000m3. Calculations of the cost of the program versus the value
of the additional inflow from the 1995 program were performed using certain assumptions.
The resultant benefit to cost ratio was calculated to be 23 ½ :1. http://www.nawcinc.com/
cseng.PDF
Inexpensive agriculture and drought mitigation :
hina uses cloud seeding for several purposes : The ground precipitation enhancement operations
in Feng Huang County of Hunan province during 1975-77 showed an increase of 55% of the
daily rainfall by statistics. Experiments in rainy season (April to June) during 1975-86 using
rockets in Fujian province showed rainfall increase by 24% with significant level of 0.05.
http://www.lanl.gov/chinawater/documents/huzhijing.pdf.
A group of scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences concluded after recently
doing research in the province that exploiting water resources in the air could be a sustainable way to solve water scarcity in North China. Based on the advice of the scientists, the provincial
government of Shanxi has made a six-year plan to develop weather modification technologies,
mainly seeding clouds to increase precipitation. The province will strive to increase its annual
rainfall by 2 to 3 billion cu m a year. Shanxi is among one of the most arid provinces in China,
with about 4 million people and nearly 1 million head of livestock being affected every year.
Dry weather also leads to reduced grain harvest, local officials said. Since the late 1980s, Shanxi
has been seeding clouds to increase precipitation by 600 million to 800 million cu m a year.
http://fpeng.peopledaily.com.cn/200007/14/eng20000714_45496.html.
According to Qin Dahe of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) cloud seeding
operations were conducted from 1995 to 2003 in 23 provinces by using 42321 flights of aircraft
with a total flight time of 9881 hours and employed artillery and rockets. The cloud seeding
operations covered 30 lakh sq.km and precipitation was 2100 billion cu.m (73,500 TMC). During
2003 alone 3,800 rocket launchers, 7000 anti aircraft guns and many aeroplanes were used in
about 1800 counties and employed 35,000 people for the operations. About 413 Yuan (US
$49million) were spent for the operations.
According to Zhang Qiang a noted Beijing official, in the first half of 2004,the
meteorologists injected silver iodide particles into the clouds to augment rainfall or snowfall
over Beijing Aeroplanes, rockets, artillery shells, meteorological balloons and mountain top
based generators were employed. From January to end of June (Beijing Time report dt.24-7-
2004) China used 227 aircraft putting in 530 hours of flight time in cloud seeding operations in
15 provinces and regions covering an area of about 1.66 million square km and sprinkled
chemicals into the clouds by using 12,464 rockets and 66,000 large caliber artillery shells in
different provinces and cities producing 10 billion cubic meters (350 TMC) of water. Zhang
Qiang estimated that the cost of 1 cu.m of man made rain works out to 2 US cents (equivalent
to one Indian rupee).
According to Hu Zhijin a cloud expert with Chinese Academy of Sciences Cloud seeding
is cheaper than other methods used by Government to solve the water shortage problem such
as the South-North water diversion project intended to transport water from Yangtze river basin
to Beijing and Northern parts of China. He said that for one dry season about 2 to 3 million
Yuan (US $ 24,180 to $ 36,270) was needed to carry out the cloud seeding programmes.
Pakistan : Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director-General of the Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD), said that the department was conducting cloud seeding experiments in the
country with the assistance of the Army Aviation, which was called artificial rain, though it was
somewhat misleading. However, he said, these experiments met with considerable success. He
said that PMD initiated the experiments from June 2000 to augment rainfall mainly over droughthit
areas of the country. He lamented that at this experimental stage, besides the limitations of
resources (equipments, specially equipped aircraft etc) the main reason for limited success in
winter was that very weak weather systems were approaching Pakistan. Most of these clouds
were lacking the moisture content or these were high clouds it could be developed to a level
where drought situations could be averted, he added. He said that among the three experiments
-one in Murree area and two in Baluchistan - could achieve some success in the form of rain/
snow. http://lists.isb.sdnpk.org/pipermail/eco-list/2001-February/001017.html
The President of Pakistan, General Musharaff proved his statesmanship as a savior of
the people and the environmental assets of Pakistan by directing the Heads of the Pakistan
Meteorological Department and the Aviation Department to fight against the recurring droughts
by conducting experiments on cloud seeding to promote annual precipitation to augment substantially the snow fall and the rainfall. Pakistan had made a success of the cloud seeding
experiments. Out of the 48 warm cloud experiments conducted 30 were highly successful, 14
had a limited success and 4 failed due to technical problems with the aircraft. Out of the 23 cold
cloud seeding experiments 9 were highly successful, 6 had limited success and 8 have failed.
http://www.comsats.org.pk/latest/anjum_farooqi.pdf.
Wyoming : On March 19,2002 the Governor’s Drought Management Task Force met in Cheyenne
to discuss and evaluate Wyoming’s conditions and drought outlook. During the meeting it was
stated that Municipalities, agricultural interests, hydro-electric companies and others that would
benefit from additional snow pack that would help cover the costs. Jeri Trebelcock with the
Popo Agie Conservation District said the cost of cloud seeding equates to $1 per acre-foot.
http://www.uwyo.edu/ces/Drought/Releases/CloudSeed.html. http://www.uwyo.edu/ces/
Drought/Releases/statedroughtnews3.html.
Nevada : Benefits vary with the seasonal frequency of suitable weather opportunities. Research
results have documented precipitation rate increases of 0.1 - 1.5 millimeters per hour due to
ground-based seeding during proper weather conditions. Estimates of augmented water from
seeding have varied from 20,000 to 80,000 acre-feet over each of the last ten years. Seasonal
percentage increase estimates have varied from 4 to 10%; generally greater in drought years;
less in above normal years. The cost of augmented water, based on the cost of the program,
has ranged from $7 to about $18 per acre-foot. http://cloudseeding.dri.edu/Program/
Synopsis.html
Kansas: Brian Vulgamore, who conducted Kansas-State’s study, said “Unfortunately, science
was unable to separate fact from fiction after that, due to lack of research funding in the 1980s
and ’90s.” That’s why his study bypassed the science of modifying the weather. Instead,
Vulgamore tried to assess real-life impacts. He examined both rainfall and hail in western
Kansas and worked to put their outcomes in dollar terms. “The smallest drought causes economic
harm in any semi-arid farming region,” Kastens pointed out. “Up to a point, extra rainfall brings
extra economic benefits.” But equal precipitation losses and gains don’t bring equal results.
Vulgamore’s analyses suggest that an added inch of growing-season rain in western Kansas
translates into an economic gain of about $18 million. A 1-inch loss in rainfall translates into
economic losses exceeding $19 million. http://www.uswaternews.com/archives/arcsupply/
tclosee3.html
North Dakota: Sell and Leistritz (1998) studied the economic impacts of cloud seeding in North
Dakota. Eight of North Dakota’s most common crops like wheat, barley, sunflower, soybeans,
dry edible beans, corn grain, oats, and flax were evaluated for impacts of a statewide cloud
seeding program. Results were based on a 45 percent reduction in crop losses (Smith, et al.,
1997), and a 15 percent increase in rainfall (Changnon and Huff, 1972). The annual crop production
increase was $34.4 million for hail reduction and $52.2 million for rainfall enhancement statewide.
This $86.6 million direct impact results in an increase in total business activity of $267 million
or an average of $14.52 per planted acre. Additionally, the estimated $3.2 million annual cost
of operating a cloud seeding program statewide is more than offset by the $5.1 million in
increased tax revenues. Thus, the program more than pays for itself. Additional benefits to other
crops, livestock and reduction of property damage were not included in this report, but are also
thought to be substantial. http://www.swc.state.nd.us/arb/graphics/QandA.pdf
California : The cost of the annual cloud seeding program is shared among the County and the
water districts, which receive a benefit from it. The cost is well justified when compared to its
benefits. The average cost of water produced by cloud seeding is less than $100 per acre-foot.

By comparison, the cost of State Water on the South Coast is roughly $1200 per acre-foot.
Desalinated seawater costs approximately $1950 per acre-foot. Groundwater and water from
Lake Cachuma average between $75 and $250 per acre-foot. Cloud seeding is one of the least
expensive sources of water. (Santa Barbara County,USA). http://www.countyofsb.org/pwd/
water/cloud.htm.
Municipal water supplies at cheaper cost :
UTAH cloud seeding program : The estimated average annual increase in runoff due to cloud
seeding in Utah is 249,600 acre-feet. This is an average annual increase of 13.0 percent. The
estimated project cost for the 1999-2000 season is $254,300. The resulting cost per acre-foot is
about one dollar ($1.02). http://water.utah.gov/cloudseeding/PDF/Utcsprog.pdf. http://
water.utah.gov/cloudseeding/CurrentProjects/Default.asp
Syria : Cloud-seeding technology is generally an expensive process, dependent on its efficiency
and effectiveness. The equipment used in Jordan included C-B and VRC 74 weather radars, and
an aircraft equipped with meteorological recording instruments. The aircraft also contained a
computer, satellite station (METEOSAT NOAA), qualified radar technicians, engineers,
meteorologists and pilots. In Syria, the cloud-seeding project was initiated in 1992, involving
similar equipment and staff. Six aircraft were used for seeding purposes during 1993-1994, with
the project costs reaching 156 million Syrian lira. The operation costs reached 25 million Syrian
lira (US$ 0.5 million) in 1998. The costs per cubic meter of water for the years 1991-1997 were
previously highlighted. Based on the regression method used to estimate the increased rainfall,
the costs range between US 0.026-0.181 cents/m3 of water, and between US 0.016-0.113 cent/m3
if the ratio method is used. http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/Publications/TechPublications/TechPub-
8f/B/Cloud.asp
UNEP Programme : It is estimated that the cost of water produced is about $1.50/m3/season/
ha (United Nations, 1985). This cost is made up of scientific equipment and hardware costs;
flying costs for cloud seeding (capital and operational, including maintenance or hire charges);
salaries for scientists and pilots; the cost of seeding agents and flares; and, software costs (for
experimental and monitoring purposes). http://www.unep.or.jp/ietc/Publications/
TechPublications/TechPub-8a/cloud.asp
South Africa : Studies by the hydrological community have projected a ~25% increase in annual
run off in typical Highveld catchments if the annual rainfall could be increased by 7%. If
attainable, this will result in additional water at about 1/5 the cost of the cheapest alternative
in South Africa. http://metsys.weathersa.co.za/cloud_detail.htm
Experiments on warm clouds by IITM, Pune (1973-1986) : The Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, Pune launched a warm cloud seeding experiment using aircraft in the semi-arid
region towards East of Pune on the leeward side of the Western ghats from 1973 to 1986. A
randomized double area crossover design with a buffer zone was used for the aerial seeding
work. The experimental area covering 4800 sq. km. was divided into 3 parts designated as
North, Buffer and South sectors in Ahmadnagar, Baramati area (Hindu dated 18-1-1988). The
results of experiments on aerial seeding of warm clouds with common salt and soap stone
powder for the eleven years. (Refer Warm Cloud Seeding Chapter)
Cost Benefit Ratio For Warm Cloud Seeding : The cost-benefit Ratio for the warm cloud
seeding experiment based upon the data collected by the Institute at Pune for the increase in
precipitation of about 20% works out as follows:

 Experiments in Visakhapatnam, 2002 : At the request of the Municipal Corporation of
Visakhapatnam Aerial Cloud Seeding was undertaken besides two ground based generators
located at Simhachalam hills during 12-14 October 2002. The helicopter used flew for two hours
on each day during 1600 to 1800 hours. The seeding was done by sprinkling the Sodium Chloride
powder of 200 Kg. on each day manually at heights of about 1 to 1.5 km above the sea level.
The results are reproduced in Fig. 1 to 3 clearly demonstrate the increased rainfall. Assuming
the area of the district where 42 out of 43 reported rainfall during seeding as 10,000 sq.km. with
district average rainfall of 12th as the baseline, the increased water due to seeded rain is estimated
at about 15 TMC. The expenditure involved was only about Rs.6 lakhs which clearly demonstrate
the cheapest and viable alternative to increase water resources. http://www.geocities.com/
jvmnaidu/watershed.html
From the above studies it may be seen that the cost of cloud seeding varies greatly,
depending on a large number of factors, such as which seeding methods and materials are
appropriate to a specific application, the frequency of seedable conditions, the size of the intended
area of effect and the duration of the project. Most cloud seeding projects carry favorable
benefit/cost ratios, ranging over 20:1 in some cases. http://www.nawcinc.com/wmfaq.html.

CLOUD SEEDING BY FARMERS

 GROUND GENERATORS FOR CLOUD SEEDING

Prof.T.Shivaji Rao
Director, Centre for Environmental Studies, GITAM Institute of Science, GITAM University 
http://jcsepa.mri-jma.go.jp/outreach/20070131/Presentations/P3_Yao.pdf 

[excellent review of cloud seeding work in china by Tao,expert,2005]

Cloud seeding operations are conducted successfully for almost 50 years in several

countries including USA where at present 100 catchments are subjected to cloud seeding to

increase winter precipitation and the increased run-off varies from 5% to 15%. 20 years of cloud

seeding in Tasmania has been proclaimed as a successful operation by the Australian Council

of Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) which confirmed that the rainfall can

be increased by 15% to 20% on seeded days. Due to lack of adequate water resources for

drinking, agriculture, industry and other needs cloud seeding operations have been taken up in

Jordan since 1986 under Precipitation Enhancement Project (PEP). Some of the salient features

of this project are:

A special airplane for cloud seeding and 24 ground generators, located at selected sites are used.

●AgI is used with acetone solution

●The average time of cloud seeding by the Airplane is 50-70 hours/season.

●The average of the cloud seeding by the ground generators is 2000 hours/season

●The Doppler C-band weather radar determines the candidate cloud that could be seeded

by airplane.

●A special GPS system is used to display the track of the airplane on the radar display.

●Voice communication is available between the radar meteorologist and the airplane to

direct the pilot to the candidate clouds.

In China the experts are using not only many aeroplanes but are also using many

ground generators including rockets, cartridges and anti-aircraft guns for cloud seeding. However

since the use of rockets and anti-aircraft guns pose some problems and since aeroplanes cannot

be used in certain special locations like deep valleys surrounded by steep hills the ground

generators become the choicest instruments for cloud seeding to augment precipitation in

some localities.

The latest in ground-based pyrotechnic applications are the ground-based flare-trees

offered by the Weather Modification Company of USA . This flare-tree has a tripod base which

provides good stability even under the most extreme weather conditions and provides for easy

leveling. The flare-tree is provided with 9 racks, each holding upto 12 glaciogenic or hygroscopic

flares and it can be configured for manual or remote controlled operation. Some kinds of

ground generators are trailer-mounted so that they can be positioned prior to the operation in

the selected locality and removed conveniently after completion of the work. In case these

generators are to be used on the mountains, they would be located near the existing roads or

access tracks and below ridges to minimise visibility. The trailers are camouflaged steel containers

having a gas burner located 3 meters above the ground. Propane gas from an adjacent 2000 litre

container vaporizes a mixture of silver iodide and acetone. The combustion and the resultant

plumes are generally invisible. Different kinds of ground generators can be developed and used

for different localities. Some of the Indian farmers in Kutch region of Gujarat previously used

locally developed ground generators and conducted cloud seeding experiments. Many western

experts also developed different ground generators for cloud seeding operations. These case

studies are presented here.

I. Extensive use of ground generators in USA :

In several states of USA the North American Weather Consultants (NAWC) have

conducted cloud seeding operations in several dozens of localities by using not only aeroplanes

but also many advanced ground generators as listed at the end of this presentation.

In order to unfold the detailed procedures followed in using ground generators some

of the salient features of one of the field projects executed by the North American Weather

Consultants (NAWC) under the guidance of the reputed International expert Dr.Don.A.Griffith

is presented here with his kind permission.

Gunnison Precipitation project Cloud seeding Operational Plan :

Objectives of the Project : The objective of the proposed project is to augment the precipitation/

snow pack that occurs with the passage of late fall, winter and spring cloud formations over the

intended target areas in Gunnison river, a tributary of Colorado river in USA;

The primary target area is defined as those mountainous areas above 9000 feet above

the mean sea level msl located in southwestern Gunnison County, northern Hinsdale and northern

Saguache Counties. The proposed target area constitutes most of the tributaries to the upper

Gunnison River Drainage that enter the Gunnison River from the south. Figure 1 provides a

map of the proposed primary target area.

There will be some positive (increases in precipitation) effects downwind of this primary

target area. These effects will occur primarily on the Eastern slopes of the Sawatch Range and

Southern slopes of the La Garita Mountains.

Project Implementation : Operational seeding decisions of when and which ground based

generators should be utilized during specific cloud system occurrences will be made by the

Company headquarters which is equipped with four personal computers with T-1 access to the

internet. A variety of weather products, available through the internet, will be monitored to

assist in making these seeding decisions. These products, most of which are provided by the

National Weather Service (NWS) will include: weather satellite (IR and visual) photos, surface

charts, constant pressure charts (i.e.700,500mb), upper-air rawinsonde observations (weather

balloons), NEXRAD weather radar information, surface weather reports (typically available at

hourly intervals), NWS weather forecasts and prognostic (forecast) charts of a variety of weather

parameters.

NAWC meteorologists will monitor the above information to determine if NAWC’s

generalized cloud seeding criteria are met and, if so, which generators should be operated.

NAWC’s generalized seeding criteria developed upon practical considerations plus the results

from previous winter orographic weather modification research programs are presented below.

NAWC Winter Cloud Seeding Criteria :

(1)cloud bases are below the mountain barrier crest.

(2)low-level wind directions and speeds that would favor the movement of the silver iodide

particles from their release points into the intended target area.

(3)no low level atmospheric inversions or stable layers that would restrict the vertical

movement of the silver iodide particles from the surface to at least. The -5°C (23°F) level

or colder.

(4)temperature at mountain barrier crest height expected to be -5°C (23°F) or colder

(5)temperature at the 700 mb level (approximately 10,000 feet) expected to be warmer than

-15°C (5°F).

A network of 8 to12 ground based silver iodide generators will be used in the conduct

of this project. These generators will be sited at private residences or public places of business.

The residents or business operators will be trained in the operational procedures to be used in

turning the generators on or off.

NAWC meteorologists will contact these operators when conditions have been

determined to be favorable for operations and request that the generators be turned on. When

conditions are no longer favorable, the operators will be called to turn the generators off.

Figure 1 provides tentative locations of these generators. The project is planned to

operate during the period of November 15th – April 15th during the next five winter seasons

beginning in the 2003-2004 winter season. This period is the same as that contained in an

existing cloud seeding permit covering most of the remainder of the upper Gunnison River

Drainage.

Figure 2 provides a photograph of one of NAWC’s ground based, manually operated

units. Each generator site is equipped with a propane tank. The propane is lit within the generators

burn chamber and then the silver iodide (dissolved in acetone) is injected into the propane

flame. As the effluent from the generator cools, literally trillions of microscopic sized particles

of silver iodide are produced. These particles have the ability to cause water droplets within

clouds that are colder than approximately -5oC to freeze. The tiny ice crystal that is produced,

if it remains in a favorable environment, will grow into a snow flake. NAWC will use a seeding

solution composed of acetone, silver iodide, sodium iodide and paradichlorobenzene. This

solution has been shown to produce more effective seeding particles at warmer temperatures

(i.e. about -10o to -5oC and to produce these crystals more quickly than pure silver iodide

(Finnegan, 1999). Each generator will consume 8-12 grams of silver iodide per hour of operation.

Aerial seeding is not proposed for this project.

Project Design for Economic Benefit to the Target Area : The proposed project design is based

upon NAWC’s significant experience in designing, conducting and evaluating similar winter

orographic weather modification projects in the western United States dating back to the 1950’s.

The design is also based upon the conduct of a number of research programs in weather

modification including the Climax Experiments I and II conducted in the Central Rocky Mountains

of Colorado ( Mielke, et al, 1981) and the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project (CRBPP) conducted

in the San Juan Mountains of south-western Colorado. NAWC’s former affiliate company,

Aerometric Research, performed a comprehensive evaluation of the latter program (Elliott, et al,

1976).

Evaluations of previous NAWC winter orographic projects have indicated increases in

target area precipitation in the range of 10-20%. For example, a long term project that began

in central and southern Utah in 1974 and continues to the present time has produced

approximately a 14% increases in target area precipitation based upon a target and control

evaluation (Griffith, et al, 1991). Results from other projects conducted in Utah and surrounding

Inter-Mountain states are provided in Figures 3 and 4.

Based upon the positive results achieved in these projects and also upon the topography

of the target area and the type of storms that frequently impact the area, it is NAWC’s expectation

that a 10-20% increase in target area precipitation can be produced by this project.

The predicted 10-20% increases will have a variety of positive impacts within Gunnison

County. The additional snow in the winter and spring months will benefit the tourism interests

(i.e. skiing, snowmobiling).

A report prepared by the Colorado Department of Natural Resources documents the

impact of additional snow on ski area attendance (Sherretz and Loehr, 1983). This report estimated

that a 15% in snowfall for hypothetical dry winters at Colorado ski areas are associated with 2-

8% increases in total season visits.

Increases in winter snow pack will result in enhanced spring and summer stream flow

on the upper Gunnison River and its tributaries. This additional stream flow will provide an

economic benefit to a variety of users and consumers. User groups that may derive benefits

will include: hydro-electric generation facilities, fishing, rafting and general tourism interests.

User groups that will benefit from the project will include irrigated agriculture, livestock and

municipal water interests.

A report prepared by the Utah Division of Water Resources estimated that the additional

streamflow that results from a large winter orographic weather modification program being

operated in the State of Utah by NAWC is being produced for approximately $1.02 per acre

foot (Stauffer, 2001). The value of this water, depending upon its use, is probably in the range

of $10-$50 per acre foot in primary benefits. There are a number of secondary benefits as well,

for example the impacts on tourism, which increases the value of this water. Increases in tourism

also generate additional sales tax revenues which will benefit Gunnison County and the State

of Colorado.

Benefit to Both in the Target Area and Colorado Countries : The expected economic benefits

to Gunnison County were documented in the previous section. There will be additional general

benefits including increases in timber growth, increases in water stored in under-ground

aquifers, increased spring flows, and carry-over storage in reservoirs from one year to another

which may lessen the impacts of future droughts in the area.

Some of the additional water generated by the project will flow downstream into other

Colorado counties (e.g. Montrose, Delta, Pitkin, and Chaffee Counties) which will derive economic

and general benefits from this additional water (i.e. irrigation, hydro-electric generation, municipal

water, tourism). Surrounding counties will also benefit from increased tourism in the area which

will generate additional tax revenue for these counties and the State of Colorado.

Project is Scientifically and Technically Feasible : A Policy Statement on Planned and

Inadvertent Weather Modification adopted by the American Meteorological Society in 1998

(AMS, 1998) which states in part “There is statistical evidence that precipitation from supercooled

orographic clouds (clouds that develop over mountains) has been seasonably increased by about

10%. The physical cause-and-effect relationships, however, have not been fully documented.

Nevertheless, the potential for such increases is supported by field measurements and numerical

model simulations.” NAWC’s design for this project is directed at winter supercooled orographic

clouds. This AMS statement provides scientific support to NAWC’s design. This policy statement

was no doubt based in part upon earlier research programs conducted in Colorado that were

referenced earlier (Climax I and II and the Colorado River Basin Pilot Project). Another research

program of relevance to the design of this project was conducted in the Jemez and Sierra

Nacimiento Mountains of northern New Mexico from 1969 to 1972. This project utilized ground

based portable silver iodide generators to seed portions of winter orographic storms on a

randomized basis. A statistical analysis of the effects of the seeding indicated an increase of 13%

during the seeded 24 hour periods (Keyes, et al, 1972).

NAWC cites its long history, which dates back to 1951, in conducting successful winter

orographic weather modification programs as evidence that the conduct of this project is

technically feasible. Attachment provides a summary listing of some of NAWC’s previous

operational precipitation enhancement projects. Many of these projects were winter orographic

weather modification projects.

 

II. Indian farmers seed clouds with ground generators :

As a social worker of Kutch Mr.Shanthilalbhai Meckoni realised that the development

of the Kutch region of Gujarat can not be achieved unless the annual rainfall of the region

amounting to about 250mm is substantially increased for providing adequate water for drinking

and irrigation purposes. In order to conserve water he implemented several water harvesting

structures as Vice-President of Vivekananda Research and Training Institute in Kutch region. In

the process he realised that the utility of his water harvesting structures becomes more useful

if only he can increase the annual rainfall by tapping the sky water from the clouds whenever

they appear in the sky over the Kutch region.

He discussed with several foreign experts on how to conduct cloud seeding experiments

to make available more water for the domestic and agricultural needs of the people in this

region. Among the experts he contacted one professor from Jerusalem University told him how

they conducted cloud seeding experiments by using ground generators in Israel for augmenting

the annual rainfall. Israel used hot air ovens packed with coke that was heated upto about

1200oC for sprinkling technical grade silver iodide powder in small quantities so that the vaporized

fumes directly get into the super cooled regions of the cloud where the silver iodide particles

work as ice particles over which the super cooled water and the moisture are precipitated to

promote the growth of ice particles into ice crystals and then to ice flakes that fall down to earth

due to gravity as snowfall or rainfall.

Meckoni considered the special topographical and meteorological features of his region

and made suitable modifications in the procedures for conducting the cloud seeding experiments

on the lines of the initial cloud seeding experiments conducted in Israel. The farmers in the

Kutch region of Gujarat came forward to take advantage of this new technology to improve

their lot. Meckoni has supplied the farmers with the ovens fixed with the blowers along with

the coke and technical grade silver iodide needed for conducting the experiments. The farmers

used to look into the skies for the arrival of dark clouds and cloud clusters and then immediately

start the experiments for seeding such suitable clouds. They used to sprinkle 200 gms of silver

iodide over hot coke oven with 1200oC at 5 to 8 grams at a time for 40 minutes by using a tea

spoon. They used to maintain proper temperature so that the silver iodide sprinkled over the

white hot coke in the oven does not get into the liquid state but gets directly into the vapour

state so that the vapours directly get carried by the updrafts into the colder regions of the clouds

in about half an hour time. Heavy rain used to fall on the ground within 45 minutes. The base

of the clouds must be within 1km to 1.5km from the ground level because if the cloud base is

far higher from the ground the precipitation from the clouds may not reach the ground as

rainfall as the droplets may be carried away again as moisture into the atmosphere.

The farmers received scientific information about the suitability of clouds and the timings

when they have to conduct the experiments. The officers of the Indian Meteorological Department

who were operating weather radars in Gujarat used to detect the appropriate clouds and pass

on the information through the All India Radio station to the farmers who in turn used to take

timely action to conduct the experiments. The farmers also used to confirm by local observations

about the seedability conditions before launching the experimental operations. The farmers are

said to have come forward to collect donations from each village for purchase of chemicals and

equipment for the experiments and succeeded in achieving their goals of augmenting the annual

rainfall in the drought prone Kutch region. However this good work didnot continue for long

for various reasons.

Taking this example the farmers in other states must develop improved ground generators

and conduct these cloud seeding experiments to augment their annual rainfall. It must be remembered that ground generators are used in several countries for cloud seeding operations

to augment the snowfall or rainfall.

Even if the state Government uses aeroplanes regularly for cloud seeding operations it

may not be possible for the aircrafts to seed all the clouds at a time when suitable clouds are

likely to be present in distant places in the state under highly favourable weather conditions.

For various reasons, the pilots may not be able to reach the target clouds within an hour or the

life time of the clouds, making the operations ineffective Thus ground generators, anti-aircraft

guns and rockets are still used for cloud seeding operations mostly in several parts of China and

Russian states. The Indian farmers also must make genuine attempts to increase the annual

rainfall in their respective regions by conducting cloud seeding operations by using suitably

modified ground generators.

A smoke generator emits 1016 smoke particles per gram of AgI burned and only one in

10 of these particles are effective as ice forming nuclei at –20oC while only one in one lakh at

–10oC with a consumption rate of a few grams of AgI per hour. The generator effluent at 10

meters downwind of the generator will have nuclei effective at –20oC of about 3 x1011 crystals

per cubic meter. Of those effective at –10oC the concentration will be 3x107 per m3. It means the

effluent would over-seed the cloud near the generator. But if the generator is located at a point

at the base of the mountain slope or in a low flying aeroplane about 1km below the –5oC level

entrained within convective updraft, the smoke will be diluted by turbulence by a factor of 100

to one million times. On a complex mountain terrain the generator smoke rises and spreads

rapidly and the plume top was found to rise 1.5kms at 5km downwind in the CLIMAX project

in wind tunnel modelling.

An English Daily Bombay Times, in its Edition dt.23-6-1995 presented the successful

artificial rain making experiments conducted by Shantilal Meckoni who successfully produced

additional rainfall in Kutch region of Gujarat and in the Vaitarna and Tansa drinking water

lakes of Bombay by sprinkling silver iodide over hot coke oven in ground generators. This rain

induction method involves placing silver iodide powder in a furnace to evaporate upwards into

supercooled water regions in the clouds where the supercooled water forms into ice crystals that

grow into ice flakes which fall down to earth as heavy rainfall.

The parameters required for this experiment are: humidity must be more than 70%,

wind velocity about 15kms per hour, cloud thickness must be about 10,000ft. and temperature

in the cloud should be minus 5o C. The experiment conducted at Tansa lake produced more than

70mm rain in 2 hours duration. For each experiment just 250gms of silver iodide and a small

amount of coke for the furnace is needed to maintain a temperature of about 1200o C and a

blower is used for the purpose. Meckoni says that Israil and Russian Governments conduct

these experiments even when there is natural rainfall because they want to increase the water

availability by making the clouds grow in size by merging with the neighbouring smaller clouds

and also by processing more moisture from the updrafts created by the latent heat released

during the experiments. There are no side effects as the iodide in the rain water disintegrates

and the silver remains only in very miniscule quantities that are within the safe limits. Meckoni

learnt this science of rain induction from a visiting professor from Jerusalem University and

chose Kutch his homeland for these experiments.

According to a report prepared by Bombay Municipal Corporation from July 16 1992

to August 9, 1992 cloud seeding work was carried out for 9 days at Tansa and Modak Sagar

lakes. On these days it was observed that the average rainfall was about 25mm per day at Tansa

and about 35mm per day at Modak Sagar while the average rainfall recorded when no cloud

seeding was done was about 10mm per day at Tansa and about 13mm per day at Modak Sagar.

It means that there was a 200% increase in the rainfall during the cloud seeding days. It is

reported that the water level in Vaitarani lake rose by 3 meters in 2 days around 25 July 1992.

It is a very inexpensive technique because for one station of 5000 hectares the Bombay Corporation

spent Rs.2,250/-

Operational Experimental Conditions : To summarise, the humidity should be over 70%. The

cloud should be at a height of 10,000 feet the atmospheric temperature of the cloud should be

minus 5oC, 250gms of silver iodide should give best results and the wind velocity should be

less than 15km/hour. For more information on warm cloud seeding experiments conducted

with the help of the ground generators please see the chapter on “Cloud seeding experiments

in India”.

References :

1.AMS, 1999: American Meteorological Society Policy Statement on Planned and Inadvertent

Weather Modification. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 79, No. 12.

2. ASCE, 1995: Guidelines for Cloud Seeding to Augment Precipitation. American Society of

Civil Engineers, Manual No. 81, New York, New York.

3. Berg, N.H.,1988: A Twelve-Year Study of Environmental Aspects of Weather Modification

in the Central Sierra Nevada and Carson Range. The Sierra Ecology Project, Unpublished

Report on file at the Pacific Southwest Research Station, United States department of

Agriculture. Albany, CA.

4. Berg, N.H. and J.L. Smith, 1980: An Overview of Societal and Environmental Responses

to Weather Modification. The Sierra Ecology Project, 5. Office of Atmospheric Resources

Management, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO.

Cooper, C.F. and W.C. Jolly, 1969: Ecological Effects of Weather Modification; A Problem

Analysis. Department of Resource Planning and Conservation, University of Michigan.

Elliott, R.D., R.W. Shaffer, A.Court and J.F. Hannaford, 1976: Colorado River Basin Pilot

Project, Comprehensive Evaluation Report. Aerometric Research Inc. report to the Bureau

of Reclamation.

Finnegan, W.G., 1999: Generation of Ice Nucleus Aerosols by Solution and Pyrotechnic

Combustion. Weather Modification Association, Journal of Weather Modification, Vol. 30,

pp. 102-108.

Griffith, D.A., J.R. Thompson and D.A. Risch, 1991: A Winter Cloud Seeding Program in

Utah. Weather Modification Association, Journal of Weather Modification, Vol. 23, pp. 27-

34.

Harper, K.T., 1981: Potential Impacts of Snowpack Augmentation in the Uinta Mountains,

Utah. Final Report to the water and Power Resources Service, Brigham Young University.

Keyes, C.G. Jr., D. Rottner, F.D. Stover and R.D. Wilkins, 1972: An Evaluation of the

Results of Four Years of Randomized Seeding in Northern New Mexico. Preprints of

Third Conference on Weather Modification, American Meteorological Society, Rapid City,

South Dakota, June 1972, pp. 137-141.

Klein, D.A., 1978: Environmental Impacts of Artificial Ice Nucleating Agents. Dowden,

Hutchinson, and Ross, Inc., Stroudsburg, PA.

Knight, D.H., Anderson, A.D., G.T. Baxter, K.L. Diem, M. Parker, P.A. Rechard, P.C.

Singleton, J.F. Thilenius, A.L. Ward and R.W. Weeks, 1975: The Medicine Bow Ecology

Project. Final report to the Bureau of Reclamation, University of Wyoming.

Mielke, P.W. Jr., G.W. Brier, L.O. Grant, G.L. Mulvey and P.N. Rosenzweig, 1981: A

Statistical Reanalysis of the Replicated Climax I and II Wintertime Orographic Cloud

Seeding Experiments. American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology, pp.

643-659.

Sherretz, L.A. and W. Loehr, 1983: Early-Season Snow and Skier Visits in Colorado.

Colorado Department of Natural Resources Report to the Bureau of Reclamation.

Stauffer, N.E. Jr., 2001: Cloud Seeding - The Utah Experience. Weather Modification

Association, Journal of Weather Modification, Vol. 33, pp. 63-69.

Steinhoff, H.W. and J.D. Ives, 1976: Ecological Impacts of Snowpack Augmentation in the

San Juan Mountains. Final Report to the Bureau of Reclamation, Colorado State University.

Weisbecker, L.W., 1974: The Impacts of Snow Enhancement; technology Assessment of

Winter Orographic Snowpack Augmentation in the Upper Colorado River Basin. University

of Oklahoma Press.