Tuesday, July 24, 2012

SUCCESSFUL CLOUD SEEDING IN ANDHRA PRADESH

Prof.T.Shivaji Rao,
Director, Center for Environmental Studies,
GITAM University, Visakhapatnam
http://tshivajirao.blogspot.in/2012/06/cloud-seeding-for-india.html  
WHY IN  POOR COUNTRIES LIKE INDIA,THE RICH POLITICIANS ALWAYS MANIPULATE OFFICIALS AND SCIENTISTS TO OPPOSE CLOUD SEEDING ?
Why BMC is taking so long for cloud seeding experiment ?/it is already confirmed that it has rained properly. Are the Shiv Sena and BJP leaders want to delay this experiment deliberatelly since by september the cloud density will be less and they can earn more money in the experiment which will not create  the result. BMC should have done this work in July when cloud cover was adequate also . BJP and Shiv Sena will earn lots of money through tanker mafia. it is corruption which is going on for a long time in Maharastra .it is done by Pawar familly as well-----AMIT[Mumbai]http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/opinions/15565223.cms?ordertype=asc 

1.0 INTRODUCTION:
The Government of Andhra Pradesh has declared nearly 555 Mandals as Rain shadow Area mainly in the districts of Ranga Reddy, Nalgonda, Medak, Karimnagar, Mahaboobnagar, Guntur, Prakasam, Nelore, Kurnool, Anantapur, Kadapa and Chittoor.  In these Mandals the average annual rainfall is less than 600mm and below that is why they were declared under Rain Shadow Area in the year 2005.  The Cloud seeding is aimed to enhance the rainfall as well as to narrow down the dry spells during the monsoon season.  In Andhra Pradesh cloud seeding was started in the year 2003 and has been continued year after year till 2009.  In 2003 the cloud seeding was monitored by WALAMTARI while it was Panchayati Raj Department in the year 2004. Later from the year 2005 onwards the Government of Andhra Pradesh has created Rain shadow Areas Development (RSAD) Department and entrusted the monitoring of the Cloud Seeding to Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Hyderabad (JNTUH) in view of the program’s Scientific and Technological nature.  The JNTUH in turn has established a separate department namely Centre for Earth, Atmosphere and Weather Modification Technologies (CEA &WMT) and has been monitoring the Cloud Seeding Programme with experienced and expert Meteorologists since the year 2005.
2.0 RESULTS OF CLOUD SEEDING:
In the years 2003 and 2004 the understanding of the microphysical properties of the clouds was inadequate and could not  achieve the desired results in enhancing the rainfall.  Mostly  cold clouds were seeded in those years and warm clouds were seeded in those years and warm clouds were neglected.  In order to achieve the latest understanding in these technologies, the JNTU has organized an International Workshop in 2005.  The main outcome of this workshop was that the cloud seeding programme should concentrate mostly on warm clouds since majority of them exist in our region unlike in the western world where predominantly cold clouds exist.  Following this strategy the rainfall enhancement was 12.8%  in the year 2005, 17.2% in 2006. 19.17% in 2007, 18.25% in 2008 and 17.01%  in 2009 respectively.
3.0 RECOMMENDATIONS OF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES ON CLOUD SEEDING:
The CEA & WMT, JNTUH has organized several National and International Workshops and Conferences on the subject of Cloud Seeding every year since 2005.  The results of these conferences and workshop are being utilized in the ongoing Cloud Seeding Programme of AP to achieve better results.  Inspite of their best efforts there was a lot of debate in the print and  electronic media about the efficacy of the cloud seeding in enhancing the rainfall.  In order to dispel some of the doubts about the AP Cloud seeding programme another International workshop cum Brainstorming Session was organized during December 2008.  In this conference scientists from America, Russia and South Africa were participated apart from Indian experts.
During this conference the scientists have evaluated the AP Cloud  Seeding Programme and analysed the data so far then generated.  They came to the following conclusions.
1.the cloud seeding programme of Andhra Pradesh has utilized the best available Science and Technology and the results are very encouraging and the cloud seeding programme must be continued beyond 2009.
2. In view of the large Rain Shadow Area in the state of Andhra Pradesh, at least three Radars and Three Aircraft are required for seeding to cover the vast area.  Infact the actual requirement is four radars and five aircrafts as opined by the scientists.
3.In order to achieve good results in the Cloud Seeding, a cloud physics aircraft which measures the Micro Physical Properties of the clouds is essential to initiate strong R &D activity in the cloud Seeding Programme and such programme must be continued at least for five years in order to gain better understanding of the clouds.
In view of the above recommendations the RSAD Department, Government of AP has called tenders for cloud seeding to utilize three aircrafts and three Radars in 2009.  However the process has got much delayed in view of the election code during the summer 2009.  Nevertheless, the cloud seeding could be started from 20th July 2009 with two radars and two aircrafts while trying for the additional air craft which has joined at later date in the programme.
4.0 THE EXPERIENCE OF THE CLOUD SEEDING IN THE 2009 DROUGHT YEAR:
Never before the state has witnessed both severe drought and floods as in the year 2009.  The AP Cloud Seeding Programme for the first time has faced the severe drought situation and tried to mitigate it as much as possible.  The result is that the cloud seeding has helped in mitigating the drought to some extent but could not avert it since the number of seedable clouds available in the severe drought situation is far less when compared to normal situation.  An analysis of the rainfall data of seeded mandals provided by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Government of Andhra Pradesh has thrown an interesting fact that it is only 41.38% of excess   rainfall mandals in the state lies in the Rain Shadow Area at the beginning of the Cloud seeidng programme.  While the same figure has increased to nearly 95.65% by the end of the cloud seeding programme in the year 2009 (Table-1) This figure has been achieved even before the floods in the Krishna Basin (Fig 1&2) .  This lone example is enough to state that cloud seeding programme in Andhra Pradesh is helping in enhancing the rainfall.
5.0 PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF THE CAIPEEX EXPERIMENT BY GOVERNMENT OF INDIA:
The government of India has taken up a National experiment namely “Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX)” through Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).  The main aim of this experiment is to understand microphysical properties of the clouds in the interaction between aerosol and the cloud apart from conducting cloud seeding experiments to enhance the rainfall in various parts of the country.  This experiment was started in the year 2009 and will be continued till the year 2012.  As part of the first phase, they have measured the Microphysical properties of the clouds from May to September in the year 2009 at various parts of the country by flying with specially instrumented cloud physics aircraft for the purpose.  The preliminary results of these measurements are indicating that the clouds over Telangana and Rayalaseema are seedable to enhance the rainfall and observed that the natural Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) over these regions is of the order of 0.5 microns.  In the cloud seeding programme it is the general practice that we introduce giant nuclei artificially which is having the size more than the natural CCN size to enhance the rainfall.
Meanwhile the CEA & WMT of JNTUH has tested the flares used in the Cloud Seeding programme of AP by utilizing the above Cloud Physics Aircraft.  In these tests it came to know that the flares being used are capable of producing the CCN size of the order of one micron and above which is more than the natural CCN size as mentioned above.   Experts feel that this artificial CCN size has to be further increased to about 2 to 3 microns get the better results.  Infact the CAIPEEX programme will examine the resulting rainfalls with varying CCN  materials and sizes during the years 2010 and 2011.  We have to wait for the results at least for one more year.  In view of these findings it can be said that the AP cloud seeding programme has been progressing well with the latest scientific and technological advancements.
6.0 OTHER APPLICATIONS OF THE CLOUD SEEDING:
The cloud seeding operations in Andhra Pradesh  though mainly applied for enhancing the rainfall; it can be applied for other beneficial uses such as suppression of hail storms during pre monsoon season, dissipation of clouds during flooding season and dissipation of fog during winter season.  These applications are already being in use in many other countries.  The biggest example is that during Olympics in China, they have stopped the rain during opening and closing ceremonies.
7.0 ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF THE CLOUD SEEDING:
The climate scientists are forecasting more droughts and floods due to climate change in the near future.  In this context the cloud seeding experiments can be beneficially used to help the farmers in combating the droughts and floods as has been opined by many experts in this field.  The expenditure for this purpose is very small when compared to the benefits accrued to the society in general and farmers in particular.  For example, there was a prolonged dry spell in the year 2008 at Nalgonda district where cotton crop is in its middle of the growth and almost in a semi wilting stage.  Luckily one day there was a seedable cloud appeared over these areas, immediately the cloud seeding aircraft has seeded the cloud resulting in good amount of rainfall and the crop was saved.  Experts say that, has that rainfall was not occurred, the estimated economic loss could have run into more than 100 crores of rupees.  Infact the total expenditure in a year for cloud seeding is of the order of 25 crores only.  When compared to these figures the benefits from cloud seeding are immense, that is why more than 25 countries around the globe  are deploying these techniques successfully for the last 40 years.
8.0 ROLE OF CLOUD SEEDING IN THE WATER MANAGEMENT:
As per the WMO, the cloud seeding operations is a part of water management technique and it is not an alternative to any traditional water supply.  It is basically the enhancement of rainfall.  For example, if a cloud can rain an amount of 10mm on its natural conditions, due to seeding the same cloud can yield 12mm.   If there is no cloud at all, there is no possibility for seeding.  However during the monsoon, quite often we see that there are good number of clouds appear and about to rain but disappear without any rainfall at all.  In this juncture if you intervene the cloud by seeding, then most of these clouds has a chance of giving precipitation.  This is how the rainfall enhancement can be made over a period of time amounting to nearly 15 to 20%.  This enhancement is very important in the context that we declare meteorological drought if the annual precipitation is got reduced by 25%.  Therefore the cloud seeding plays an important role in mitigating the drought as well as in reducing the number of drought years.
9.0 CONCLUSION:
From the above examples it may be concluded that cloud seeding operations are boon to the farmers of rainfed agriculture and these operations can be conveniently utilized under favourable conditions to fill the reservoirs apart from increasing the ground water levels.  Moreover we can save lot of crops by suppressing the hail storms during the pre-monsoon showers apart from dissipating the rainfall during the floods.  In the context of more droughts and floods due to climate change, cloud seeding techniques can be effectively used to mitigate the climate change and will help the society in a multipurpose way.
 

DETAILS OF CLOUD SEEDING OPERATIONS FROM 2003-2009 IN A NUT SHELL
S.No.
Year
Date of Starting of cloud seeding
Date of Closing of Cloud seeding
No. of Contracted Days
No. of Days seeded
Districts Covered
Mandals seeded
Radars used
Aircrafts used
Expenditure in Rs.
Water Samples analyszed
% of Enhance-ment of Rainfall
Remarks
1.
2003
19-9-2003
18-11-2003
60
--
1
63
--
1
2,67,00,000/-
--
--
Based on Karnataka Rates
2.
2004
23-7-2004
15-12-2004
146
87
16
510
2
3
20,02,52,282/-
14
4.76
On Tender Basis
3.
2005
21-6-2005
21-10-2005
120
86
10
476
2
3
20,62,02,094/-
108
12.85
On Tender Basis
4.
2006
19-9-2006
18-12-2006
90
49
10
552
2
2
13,89,51,036/-
610
17.2
Nomination Based on 2005 Tender rates
5.
2007
16-7-2007
12-11-2007
120
76
12
566
2
2
22,16,05,956/-
2159
19.17
On Tender Basis
6
2008
25-7-2008
24-11-2008
120
76
12
651
2
2
24,42,58,907/-
942
18.25
On Tender basis but contract was finalized based on 2007 rates with 10% extra
7.
2009
20-7-2009
23-11-2009
120
80
12
558
2
3
25,97,57,800
536
17.01
On Tender Basis



Table-1 WEEKLY CUMULATIVE RAINFALL STATUS FOR THE YEAR -2009
Week
Excess
Normal
Deficient
Scanty
No Rain
Total Mandals
ANDHRA
RSAD
% IN RSAD
ANDHRA
RSAD
% IN RSAD
ANDHRA
RSAD
% IN RSAD
ANDHRA
RSAD
% IN RSAD
ANDHRA
RSAD
% IN RSAD
ANDHRA
RSAD
1Jun-10Jun 2009
195
132
67.69
124
72
58.06
217
115
53.00
326
180
55.21
242
154
63.64
1104
653
1Jun-17Jun 2009
153
146
95.42
163
121
74.23
263
176
66.92
466
188
40.34
59
22
37.29
1104
653
1Jun-24Jun 2009
157
152
96.82
161
136
84.47
294
180
61.22
461
173
37.53
31
12
38.71
1104
653
1 Jun-1 Jul 2009
159
128
80.50
197
129
65.48
374
222
59.36
363
168
46.28
11
6
54.55
1104
653
1 Jun-8 Jul 2009
108
75
69.44
212
115
54.25
504
283
56.15
278
178
64.03
2
2
100.00
1104
653
1Jun-15 Jul 2009
87
36
41.38
219
107
48.86
537
318
59.22
261
190
72.80
0
2
0.00
1104
65
1Jun-22 Jul 2009
51
14
27.45
187
86
45.99
568
308
54.23
298
245
82.21
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-29 Jul 2009
27
13
48.15
118
44
37.29
536
280
52.24
423
316
74.70
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-5 Aug 2009
22
5
22.73
111
37
33.33
494
265
53.64
477
346
72.54
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-12Aug2009
17
3
17.65
79
20
25.32
459
251
54.68
549
379
69.03
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-19Aug2009
21
12
57.14
132
70
53.03
556
349
62.77
395
222
56.20
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-26Aug2009
42
31
73.81
207
140
67.63
670
381
56.87
185
101
54.59
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-2 Sep 2009
80
68
85.00
291
215
73.88
662
332
50.15
71
38
53.52
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-9 Sep 2009
56
51
91.07
310
222
71.61
673
340
50.52
65
40
61.54
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-16Sep2009
66
58
87.88
303
223
73.60
667
332
49.78
68
40
58.82
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-23Sep2009
60
58
96.67
283
207
73.14
688
341
49.56
73
47
64.38
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-30Sep2009
92
86
93.48
345
254
73.62
621
285
45.89
46
28
60.57
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-7 Oct 2009
122
115
94.26
346
233
67.34
614
286
46.58
22
19
86.36
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-14Oct 2009
107
104
97.20
305
211
69.18
672
321
47.77
20
17
85.00
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-21Oct 2009
96
95
98.96
273
193
70.70
696
339
48.71
39
26
66.67
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-28Oct 2009
90
89
98.89
253
178
70.36
709
387
50.35
52
29
55.77
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-4Nov 2009
83
82
98.80
236
165
69.92
717
358
49.93
68
48
70.59
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-11Nov2009
96
95
98.96
298
228
76.51
676
312
46.15
34
18
52.94
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-18Nov2009
86
85
98.84
321
242
75.39
672
310
46.13
25
16
64.00
0
0
0.00
1104
653
1Jun-25Nov2009
92
88
95.65
352
259
73.58
647
298
46.06
13
8
61.54
0
0
0.00
1104
653
PRE AND POST SEEDING WEEKS


















1 comment:

ABTC said...

nice blog
keep posting

About Me

My photo
Born in 1932 at Mudinepalli, near Gudivada, Krishna Dist. Andhra Pradesh, received Bachelors degree in Civil Engg., from Viswesaraiah Engineering College, Banglore (1956) and Masters Degree in Environmental Engineering from Rice university, Houston, Texas, (USA) (1962), Ph.D (Hony). Former Head of the Department of Civil Engineering and principal of College of Engineering, Andhra university.Formerly Hony.Professor in Andhra University,Manonmanian Sundarnar University,JNT University. Fellow of the Institution of Engineers,India Recipient of the University Grants Commissions National Award "Swami Pranavananda Award on Ecology and Environmental Sciences" for the year 1991. Recipient of Sivananda Eminent Citizen Award for 2002 by Sanathana Dharma Charitable Trust, Andhra Pradesh state. Presently Working as Director, centre for Environmental Studies, GITAM University, http://www.geocities.com/prof_shivajirao/resume.html http://www.eoearth.org/contributor/Shivaji.rao