WHY CHANGE KILLER POLAVARAM DAM INTO A SAFE BARRAGE ?
Prof.T.Shivaji Rao,
Director, Centre for Environmental Studies, Institute of Science , Gitam University
Certain controversies have been raised by different people on the legal and environmental aspects of the Polavaram project which is considered as a boom by the AP state Government while it is considered as a curse by many environmentalists, NGO’s and the affected people. Hence there is a need to create awareness about the environmental impacts of the project among the common people and the educated elite so that Government gets a necessary advise to make the project ecologically sound, economically feasible and socially acceptable .
Why U.S.Dam -Design standards violated in Polavaram dam design?
:U.S.Dam Design=standards Often,,either with I.D.F or P.M.Fit is likely that
downstream inundation would be the same with or without failure of the dam.
The consequences of dam failure may
not be acceptable if the hazard potential to these down-streamhabitations is
increased appreciably by the failure flood wave or level of inundation.
When a dam=break analysis shows
downstream incremental effects of approximately two feet or more, engineering
judgment and further analysiswill be necessary to finally evaluate the need for
modification to the dam. In general, the consequences of failure are considered
acceptable .
when the incremental effects (depth)
of failure on downstream structures are approximately two feet or less.
1) Polavaram Project as an Industry:
According to the various definitions given in the standard dictionaries and the interpretation of meaning of an industry given by the 7 judges of the Supreme Court (1978), the Polavaram project comes under the classification of an industry due to the presence of employers and employees who are working for a profit .Irrigation works comes under the “construction industry”. Further a 960MW Hydro-power generating unit makes the projectas an industry
http://shivajirao32.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-5 http://shivajirao32.googlepages.com/polavaramdam-6
2) Validity of Bachawat Tribunal Award:
Another controversy relates to the validity of Bachawat Tribunal Award while answering issue IV ( c) raised by upper states whether it is lawful for Andhra Pradesh to execute projects likely to submerge the territories of other states without their prior consent, the Tribunal clarified under paragraph 138 thus; “But it can not be said generally that any project of the state of Andhra Pradesh involving submergence of the territory of other states is permissible without the consent of the affected states. While the AP State Government is arguing that it is designing the Polavaram project in conformity with the Bachawat Tribunal award, the upper states of Orissa and Chattisgarh are arguing that the Bachawat tribunal award has become infructuous because the AP State Government has now revised in August-September 2005 on the directions of Central Government the spillway design for a peak flood discharge of about 50 lakh cusecs which is far higher than the peak flood of 36 lakh cusecs as agreed to by all the states of Orissa, MP and AP states and as accepted by Union Government and Bachawat Tribunal in April 1980.
3) Inadequate water for Hydro-power generation:
Central Water Commission and Central Electricity Authority have not accepted the proposals of the AP State Government for 960MW Hydel Power plant at Polavaram. On the ground that the river has not maintained for the last one century a high level flow at least for a major part of the year even during the flood years of 1986 and 2006 and such a huge flow of 28 to 30 lakh cusecs will be of no use to a Hydel station of the size proposed. See website:
4) Costs are more than the benefits:
This project provides irrigation water for 7.24 lakh acres in the coastal districts. Out of the 7.2 lakh acres expected to be irrigated by the project, the lift irrigation schemes of Tatipudi, Pushkaram and Chagalnadu, supply water to about 4.2 lakh acres that fall under Polavaram project ayacut. If we also deduct tank irrigation in this area. Polavaram provides irrigation for a net area of about 2.5lakh acres and it does not warrant for incurring enormous expenditure of about Rs.15,000 crores. While the expenditure to irrigate one acre is estimated at an average of Rs. 1 lakh/acre under other projects Polavaram project results in a huge cost of Rs.4 lakhs/acre.
5] Killer Polavaram Dam must be changed into a safe Barrage project:
Moreover in the Environmental Impact Report of 2005 the AP State Government submitted a report on Dam Break Analysis under chapter-VI wherein the Experts of the National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee - a Wing of the Union Ministry of Water Resources- clearly warned in their conclusions that the Dam break peak flood will be one and half times the corresponding peak flood for non-failure case with the design flood taken as the inflow flood.
ABOUT 50 LAKHS OF PEOPLE IN GODAVARI DELTA ARE LIKELY TO BE KILLED DUE TO THE COLLAPSE OF POLAVARAM DUE TO A MAXIMUM CREDIBLE ACCIDENT
S.No.
|
Areas
|
Population
|
1.
|
Towns & Cities in
|
10,57,000
|
2
|
Rural Mandals of
|
18,92,000
|
3
|
Rural Mandals of
|
16,66,000
|
Grand Total
|
46,15,000
|
These experts have also presented the computer simulation data with sensitive analysis which clearly show that at a distance 30km. below the dam the peak floods due to a dam break will attain an elevation of 26 to 35 meters which means that all the major urban and industrial areas of Rajahmundry and Kovvuru will be submerged by these killer floods in case of the Polavaram dam collapse. Such dam collapses are frequent and occurred in 20 cases in India China China China
As per Murphys law if some accident is likely to happen it will happen some day or the other. In case of Polavaram, the dam collapse will happen one day or the other because of human or mechanical failure, sabotage, bombing, extremists activities or failure of one or more dams in the upper states due to poor operations and maintenance.
POLAVARAM PROJECT – BACKWATER PROFILE CALCULATIONS
Name of the site
|
Discharge in Cumecs
| |||
85,000
(30 lakh cusecs)
|
1,02,000
(36 lakh cusecs)
|
1,36,200
(48 lakh cusecs)
|
1,54,300
(54lakh cusecs)
| |
i) Without dam
| ||||
Polavaram
|
28.06m (92.07ft)
|
28.92m (94.88ft)
|
30.6m (100.48ft)
|
31.5m(103.20ft)
|
Kunavaram
|
47.9 m (157.2 ft)
|
50.5m (165.8ft)
|
54.57m(179.0ft)
|
55.68m(182.7ft)
|
Konta
|
48.18m(158.1ft)
|
50.63m(166.1ft)
| ||
Bhadrachalam
|
54.23m(177.9ft)
|
57.09m(187.3ft)
|
61.76m(202.6 ft)
|
63.57m(208.6ft)
|
ii) With the dam (with different pond levels due to floods)
| ||||
a) Polavaram
|
42.67m(140ft)
|
42.67m(140ft)
|
42.67m(140ft)
|
42.67m(140ft)
|
Kunavaram
|
50.39m(165.3ft)
|
52.58m(172.5ft)
|
56.86m(186.5ft)
|
58.95m(193.4ft)
|
Bhadrachalam
|
55.38m(181.7ft)
|
58.04m(190.4ft)
|
62.89m(206.3ft)
|
65.16m(213.8ft)
|
b) Polavaram
|
45.72m(150ft)
|
45.72m(150ft)
|
45.72m(150ft)
|
45.72m(150ft)
|
Kunavaram
|
52.18m (171.2 ft)
|
54.18 m(177.8)
|
58.22m(191.0ft)
|
60.21m(197.5ft)
|
Bhadrachalam
|
56.40m(185.0ft)
|
58.93m (193.3)
|
63.64m(208.8ft)
|
65.88m(216.1ft)
|
Note: The above values are based upon the information from the Bachawat Tribunal Report and the calculations made by the author on the basis of the Advanced Numerical Methods using the Standard-step Method described by K.Subrahmanya in his book on flow in open channels.
6) Dr.K.L.Rao warns about the failure of Polavaram:
In fact Padmabhushan Dr.K.L.Rao,the eminent irrigation expert and former Union Minister for Irrigation and Power in a press conference report published in The Indian Express on 1-5-1983 warned that since Polavaram Spill-way is highly under-designed the project will fail as can be seen from the paper clipping contained in the following website:
Dr.K.L.Rao visualized rightly that Polavaram project is a doubled-edged sword. Godavari river assumes the role of a devastating wall of flood most often during the monsoon period between June and September and suddenly becomes a water-deficit sluggish flow regime during the remaining 8 month period of the year. In order to avoid large storage of about 200 TMC that menacingly adds to the extreme flood that causes deaths of millions of human and cattle population due to a dam failure for one reason or the other, eminent experts like Dr.A.N.Khosla and N.D.Gulhati suggested for a barrage at Polavaram which will be fed by water from big dams in upper reaches of Godavari and its tributaries.
7) Alternate projects in place of Polavaram dam:
Hence in place of a killer dam the Polavaram project must be converted into a barrage for supplying Godavari water for irrigation in Coastal Andhra, Telangana and Rayalaseema. In order to obtain the same economic gain as contemplated by the Polavaram project several alternate projects like dams at Suraram in Karimnagar and Eturunagaram in Warangal districts and barrages at Peddaballal, Yellampalli, Edira , Dummagudem and Polavaram must be constructed to generate substantial hydro- power and augment agriculture production in the Telangana , Godavari Delta and Rayalaseema districts. For alternate schemes proposed by other reputed engineering experts see the following websites:
8) Appraisal of Major Irrigation Projects by Union Government Organisations:
Major irrigation projects with culturable command area (CCA) of more than 10,000 hectares are examined for various aspects in specialised Directorates in CWC and in the Ministries of Water Resources, Agriculture, Environment & Forests and Tribal Affairs. In case of multipurpose projects, examination in Central Electricity Authority is also done for power component. The existing procedure for scrutiny and examination of irrigation and multipurpose projects by CWC and acceptance by the Planning Commission for inclusion in the State Development Plan has been revised and simplified. Now Preliminary Report, prepared in brief, covering basic planning aspects are examined first and ‘In Principle’ consent of CWC for DPR preparation is communicated on the basis of soundness of proposals. Clearances for Environment, R&R plans and concurrence of State Finance, etc. are to be obtained and submitted along with DPR so that once cleared by the Advisory Committee of MoWR, the investment clearance of the Planning Commission would follow and the project could be started. The revised two stage clearance procedure is applicable from October 2001.
9) Russian Expert Predicts That Water From Polavaram Will Not Join Krishna River:
The following is the comparative statement of water availability at Polavaram project by the NWDA and IWMI.
SURFACE WATER BALANCE (MCM) AT
POLAVARAM DAM SITE, (GODAVARI 307,880Km2)
NWDA
|
IWMI
| ||
Surface Water availability
|
80,170
|
36,000
| |
Surface water import (+)
|
3,888
|
3,888
| |
Surface water export (-)
|
13,318
|
13,318
| |
Regeneration(+)
| |||
Domestic use
|
1,512
| ||
Industrial use
|
2,402
| ||
Irrigation use
|
3,138
| ||
Sub total
|
7,052
|
7,052
|
7,052
|
Overall availability
|
77,792
|
33,622
| |
Surface water requirement for (-)
| |||
Irrigation use
|
47,541
|
47,541
| |
Domestic use
|
1,890
|
1,890
| |
Industrial use
|
3,002
|
3,002
| |
Hydropower (evaporation losses)
|
6,380
|
6,380
| |
Consumptive use from Polavaram
|
3,808
|
3,808
| |
Environmental Use
|
n/a
|
8,200
| |
Sub Total
|
62,621
|
(-) 62,621
|
(-) 70,821
|
Surface water balance
|
(+) 15,171
|
(-) 37,199
| |
During 2007 the Russian expert on Hydrology, Vladimir Smakhtin, a hydrologist with International Water Management Institute prepared a report which shows that there is no surplus water from Polavaram project to flow into Krishna river as anticipated by the AP State Government Godavari catchment gets 70% of the rainfall in 5 out of 12 months in a year between June and September. Hence the National Water Development Agency (NWDA) which estimates water availability on 75% dependability fails to consider drastic changes in the flow within a year which is very high in monsoon-driven rivers. While NWDA considers the methodology of using yearly flows for inter basin water transfer on the plea that their policy is peer reviewed and approved by technical experts. The Russian experts argued that 75% dependability based on monthly flows is amore realistic approach for water management purposes. Moreover Russian expert estimates that an environmental water provision of 8,200 million cubic meters of water flow should be reserved to keep Godavari fit for fisheries and wildlife ecological sustainence. Moreover he warns that even if the project continues along with the present canals the water will be consumed en-route because of various uses for drinking and agriculture by people in many villages and hence the objective of transferring Godavari water into Krishna basin will remain a day dream.
Note: 1. The difference between the total available supply at 75% dependability and the projected demand for water at the same site is the basis to declare a basin as “Surplus” or “ Deficit” basin.
2. Optimal water resources planning suggests that although annual time step data may be used for preliminary (crude) planning of water supply systems the preferred data time for this age monthly flow time series (e.g.McMohan and Adeloye 2005) The most used flow data types are the daily, monthly and yearly time series. Due to minor variability of daily flows in summer the differences between daily and monthly flows are negligible. In the case of the differences between mean monthly and mean yearly flows in 8 out of 12 months the flows are lower than yearly mean and hence the annual data resolution therefore cannot capture enough variability inflows and can lead to over estimation of available water throughout the year. If more monthly information-rich data is used the dependable yield becomes an order of magnitude less than that estimated by using annual data resolution for 75% dependable yield.
No comments:
Post a Comment